For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Stanford Law SchoolView posts , Sudler Family Professor It reads: "PVIs are calculated by comparing the district's average Democratic or Republican Party's share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. The only way I can see to avoid this is to have the letter (R or D) always indicate which party won the district and the number indicate by how much. These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become competitive. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. It makes a lot more sense. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. I think the SVI is better. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. The boldface sentences confirm my understanding of how PVI works. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. [6], Inconsistencies among vote data aggregation processes and redistricting cycles can present challenges in determining the PVI. 1984 and 1988 were the last times the electorate was so tilted and that, of course, was for the GOP. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. But it could be even better. 128.255.79.33 Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. All Rights Reserved. Several states in this region, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, only have one congressional district effectively making the PVI ranking statewide. The national values for 2004 are George W. Bush 51.2% and John Kerry 48.8%. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. I agree with the poster above that using a more complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. L. Rev. The heavily Democratic parts of the country tend to be clustered in New England and along the West Coast. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. Then we can figure out how well our candidate did, versus their candidate. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. St. Johns Legal Studies Research Paper No. Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. In short, as electoral realities have changed, the Cook PVI must change with them. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. But we need something more shorthand, dont we? The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. Heres a case in point. The number reflects the strength of that partisan preference in rounded percentage points. Off-year cycles are very different beasts when it comes to TO, especially in states which have their gubernatorial elections in Presidential years (and the usual problem of getting out Leap Year Dems generally). I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. In any event, for the 2010 cycle the basic flaw with SVI and PVI is each concentrates exclusively on presidential results. 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). 20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. More useful is how a partys candidate performs compared to party registration (where applicable). The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. But Hes Still a Danger, Washington Post, Mar. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. But on the other hand, Im getting kind of tired of PVI, as its just one dimension out of many in describing a district, and one we shouldnt fetishize more than we should. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science UCLA School of Law [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. A district with a 2004 Cook PVI of D+1 or D+2 district is actually a Republican district, since Bush won by just over 2% nationally. The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. KISS. Segregation in the US and the dissimilarity index. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. 1 COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX. Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. The following errors occurred with your submission. Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. The same thing with Cooks PVI. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. The PVI assigns a numeric score to each U.S. congressional district based on how it performed in the previous election compared to the country as a whole. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a political district or subdivision leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential and gubernatorial level compared to the state as a whole. NC-02, NC-07, NC-08: Lowland southern rural districts where theres enough of a tradition of Yellow Dog Democratic voting plus a sizable African-American minority that Democrats can thrive downballot. For instance, Im sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the six categories I have above. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, How to Keep the Rising Tide of Fake News from Drowning Our Democracy, North Carolina Republicans Ask SCOTUS To Decimate Voting Rights in Every State, What Democrats Need From Mitch McConnell to Make an Election Reform Deal Worth It, No One is Coming to Save Us from the Dagger at the Throat of America,, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4218256, Identifying and Minimizing the Risk of Election Subversion and Stolen Elections in the Contemporary United States, https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/epdf/10.1089/elj.2021.0050, Optimism and Despair About a 2020 Election Meltdown and Beyond, Three Pathologies of American Voting Rights Illuminated by the COVID-19 Pandemic, and How to Treat and Cure Them, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, A Reasonable Bias Approach to Gerrymandering: Using Automated Plan Generation to Evaluate Redistricting Proposals, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. David Nir of the Swing State Project advocated a change to the new formula, and Charlie Cook agreed, wanting an "apples to apples" comparison. More podcast episodes , Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, Slate, November 14, 2022, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, The Atlantic, November 2, 2022, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation, NBC News Think, November 1, 2022, The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, Slate, October 26, 2022 (with Nat Bach), The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation, Slate, August 23, 2022 (with Dahlia Lithwick), What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Slate, July 25, 2022, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear,Slate, June 30, 2022, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump,N.Y. Times, June 24, 2022, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024,Wash. 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